Accession Number:

ADA220592

Title:

Classification and Casual Modeling of Economic Indicators of Instability in Developing Nations

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s):

• Wisnowski, James W.

Report Date:

1990-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

157.0

Abstract:

This study examined the relationships between several quarterly economic time series and an aggregate stability index for developing nations. The hypothesis is that worsening economic conditions in developing nations may be a driving force behind unstable conditions in work, social, military, or political domains. The objectives were to identify economic time series that may serve as indicators of instability and to develop a predictive methodology of instability given the economic input. Classification of the economic series paralleled the U.S. economic indicators of the business cycle. The series were classified as leading, lagging, coincident or unrelated to the instability index. Graphical and cross-correlation analysis were used to determine the type and strength of these relationships. The causal models used regression, logit, cluster, and factor analysis. Regression analysis using both principal components and relative changes values from the previous period was used to see if a subset of the economic series was statistically significant when regressed against the stability index. eg

Descriptors:

• *TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
• *INDEXES
• *STABILITY
• *ECONOMICS
• *DEVELOPING NATIONS
• FACTOR ANALYSIS
• GRAPHICS
• VALUE
• HYPOTHESES
• CORRELATION TECHNIQUES
• MILITARY PUBLICATIONS
• INDICATORS
• FORCE(MECHANICS)
• CYCLES
• PREDICTIONS
• COMMERCE
• METHODOLOGY
• INPUT
• REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Subject Categories:

• Economics and Cost Analysis
• Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE