Validation and Reestimation of an Air Force Reenlistment Analysis Model
Final rept. Nov 1987-Sep 1989
RRC INC BRYAN TX
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This paper describes the validation and reestimation of an econometric model to predict enlisted retention rates and their effect on Air Force Speciality AFS force structures. The econometric model estimated and developed in 1985 used data from January 1974 to March 1982. As reenlisted data since 1982 were available, the Air Force Human Resources Laboratory initiated work to validate the model. Approximately one-third of the equations were found to consistently underpredict the unusually high reenlistment rates which occurred from April 1982 to June 1986. To improve the predictive capability of the econometric model, several changes were introduced into the model expansion of the database to include the April 1982 to June 1986 reenlistment decisions, a stronger link of civilian wage to demographic and industrial variables and the introduction of seven new explanatory variables. These changes produced an econometric model with a much lower level of bias and the model was subsequently incorporated in the Air Force Retention Analysis Package AFRAP, a manpower and personnel force modeling decision aid.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Military Forces and Organizations