Pershing II Follow-On Test: Size Reduced by Sequential Analysis
DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY OF THE ARMY (OPERATIONS RESEARCH) WASHINGTON DC
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To replace the erroneous use of Fishers Exact Test to derive the reliability of a missile system in annual tests, the author developed, in collaboration with statisticians, two efficient methods, both treated by frequentist and Bayesian methods. Particular attention is called to the Truncated Sequential Probability Ratio Test. Both methods gave essentially the same results, and so justified reduction in the size of the tests for a given level of confidence and therewith a reduction in the costs of the test program. The advantages of the Bayesian methods are given out. They are generally applicable for lot sampling and other uses of sequential tests. Keywords Statistical tests reliability Surface to surface missiles, Sequences mathematics, Sequential analysis, Truncated test, Bayesian statistics, Fishers exact test.
- Statistics and Probability
- Surface-Launched Guided Missiles