Accession Number:

ADA210605

Title:

Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept. Sep 1987-Aug 1988

Corporate Author:

COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON JUDGMENT AND POLICY

Personal Author(s):

• Hammond, Kenneth R.

Report Date:

1989-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

37.0

Abstract:

Studies of expert microburst forecasters were conducted. Two studies yielded results confirming the validity of a linear model of expert judgement and the meaningfulness of profiles as representations of weather phenomena. A simulation demonstrated that a simple scientifically and empirically ignorant forecasting model could perform as well as a sophisticated scientifically informed algorithm. A study conducted under dynamic and highly representative forecasting conditions yielded the following major findings a agreement on precursor values was low to moderate, setting the possible upper limit on forecasting accuracy b agreement on microburst probabilities was lower under the highly representative situation than in our best case scenario study and c new information received over time had very little impact on the experts judgements. Keywords Dynamic tasks Experts Uncertainty Judgement.

Descriptors:

• *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
• *DECISION MAKING
• LINEAR SYSTEMS
• SCENARIOS
• SIMULATION
• WEATHER
• IMPACT
• MODELS
• PRECURSORS
• PROBABILITY
• FORECASTING
• ACCURACY
• LIMITATIONS
• WIND SHEAR
• VALUE
• AGREEMENTS
• ALGORITHMS
• STRESSES
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Subject Categories:

• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE