Accession Number:

ADA202648

Title:

Light Satellites - A Dilemma for the U.S. Army

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s):

• Pierson, James R.

Report Date:

1988-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

96.0

Abstract:

This thesis seeks to assist senior Army leaders in determining whether light satelliteLIGHTSAT should be procured to meet current and future reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisitionRSTA needs on the battlefield. Two methods were developed the decision analysis approach and the analytical hierarchy process. For each method, LIGHTSAT was evaluated against the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System alternative. Sample data was used in place of actual values unless otherwise noted. The decision analysis method required an influence diagram of the overall decision, a value model that elicited outcomes for each alternative, a model that would help determine the level of reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition achieved by each alternative and an assessment of probabilities of certain events occurring. Use of decision analysis lends considerable insight into the decision through the expected value of perfect informationEVPI. EVPI illustrates how much additional money should be invested into reducing the uncertainty within the decision. The analytical hierarchy process analyzed the decision through a hierarchy of objectives approach. Subjective judgments based upon experience were combined with quantifiable measurements to apply weightings to the various criteria within a level of the hierarchy. Synthesis of preferences between alternatives and weightings yielded an overall preference for the decision. Sensitivity analysis of the hierarchical structure offered insight into the criteria that might alter the decision. Theses.

Descriptors:

• *RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITES
• *DECISION MAKING
• *COMBAT SURVEILLANCE
• SYNTHESIS
• TARGET ACQUISITION
• PROBABILITY
• THESES
• DECISION THEORY
• LIGHTWEIGHT
• OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• HIERARCHIES
• MILITARY COMMANDERS
• JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
• RECONNAISSANCE
• ARMY PROCUREMENT
• DIAGRAMS
• BATTLEFIELDS
• ARMY PERSONNEL
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS

Subject Categories:

• Operations Research
• Astronautics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE