DoD Simulations: Improved Assessment Procedures Would Increase the Credibility of Results.
GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE WASHINGTON DC PROGRAM EVALUATION AND METHODOLOGY DI V
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Multibillion-dollar acquisition decisions for major weapons systems should in principle be based on the results of testing weapons under conditions that replicate actual combat. However, subjecting complex and expensive weapon systems to the necessary number of such tests is sometimes impractical or impossible. One alternative is to use computer models to simulate performance, but simulation results must be as representative of real-world outcomes as possible. The need for representativeness generates the major objective GAO addressed in this report to determine, using three case studies, that it is possible to assess the credibility of simulation-generated data. A second objective was to identify the steps the Department of Defense DOD has taken to foster the credibility of its simulations. GAO posed three major questions 1 What factors should be considered in a systematic attempt to assess the credibility of a simulation 2 What are the results of assessing specific operational-effectiveness simulations of weapon systems with respect to these factors 3 What efforts has the Department of Defense made to foster and reinforce simulation credibility
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