Accession Number:

ADA191082

Title:

An Investigation of Soviet Capabilities in Extended Range Arctic Ice Forecasting.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORP MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1987-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

140.0

Abstract:

Recent trends in Soviet ice forecasting include 1 rapid development in the use of satellite infrared, microwave, and side looking radar data relative to ice conditions in the last few years 2 the continued emphasis on empirical or empiricaldynamic mixed models emphasizing application to regional problems and 3 an arctic atmospheric circulation pattern change and a concomitant spatial shift of ice conditions within the Alaskan to Siberian sector that were most highly correlated with the ice flux through the Fram Strait. The arctic atmospheric circulation pattern change was identified as a result of the evaluation work done by the author on a Soviet statistical model. A significant shift in emphasis by the Soviets on the forcing of climate trends occurred during the 1970s. This shift marked a break to atmosphericoceanic cryospheric physical forcing relationships. The Soviets continued to emphasize empiricalstatistical modeling throughout the 1970s.

Descriptors:

• *SEA ICE
• ARTIFICIAL SATELLITES
• CLIMATE
• FLUX(RATE)
• FORECASTING
• ICE
• INFRARED RADIATION
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• PATTERNS
• SHIFTING
• SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• USSR
• ARCTIC REGIONS

Subject Categories:

• Snow, Ice and Permafrost

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE