Accession Number:

ADA191010

Title:

Modelling Arms Transfers: An Application of KSIM Cross Impact Analysis.

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

• Mara, Michael R.

Report Date:

1987-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

76.0

Abstract:

The arms transfer is modeled using KSIM, an enhanced version of cross impact analysis. The cross impact technique of forecasting is developed from its origin in the Delphi procedure through several of the key improvements to the original method. The KSIM approach to cross impact is discussed in detail, and is tailored to model arms transfers. A method of obtaining initial parameter estimates from and existing data base is described. The model is run and several proposed arms transfer policies are simulated. The implications of these policies are then analyzed.

Descriptors:

• *IMPACT PREDICTION
• *ARMS CONTROL
• *INTERNATIONAL TRADE
• *WEAPONS
• DATA BASES
• DELPHI TECHNIQUES
• ESTIMATES
• PARAMETERS
• POLICIES
• TRANSFER
• MILITARY ASSISTANCE
• IMPACT
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
• WEAPON SYSTEMS
• EXPORTS
• THESES

Subject Categories:

• Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
• Government and Political Science
• Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE