Accession Number:

ADA183891

Title:

The Effects of Cognitive Style and Prior Information on Multi-Stage Decisionmaking.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. Aug 82-Dec 85,

Corporate Author:

ALPHATECH INC BURLINGTON MA

Personal Author(s):

• Entin,Elliot E.
• James,Ronald M.
• Serfaty,Daniel
• Forester,John A.

Report Date:

1987-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

70.0

Abstract:

Drawing on the decisionmaking literature and on an initial ROC experiment a research design was formulated to investigate multi-stage decisionmaking and cognitive style in conditions of uncertainty. Subjects participating in the simulation experiment were required to discriminate between missile attack or a missile test condition based on probabilistic imperfect information. Results from the signal detection analyses replicated the earlier effects subjects possessing an analytic style made significantly better discriminations than subjects exhibiting a global style. ANOVA results showed that subjects held higher attack probabilities 1 in attack conditions, 2 when missile site attack probability was high, 3 as the heat sensor range moved closer to in-missile range, and 4 with each succeeding report. All the two-way interactions proved significant as were two of the three-ways. Overall, subjects demonstrated a strong bias in favor of prior information to gauge attack probability and when that source was weak attempted to use the heat signature information. It was also possible to devise a normative-descriptive model of the subjects multistage decisionmaking that fit the data quite well.

Descriptors:

• *COGNITION
• *DECISION MAKING
• INFORMATION PROCESSING
• ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE
• ATTACK
• DETECTION
• DETECTORS
• GAGES
• GUIDED MISSILES
• HEAT
• PROBABILITY
• SIGNALS
• SIGNATURES
• SIMULATION
• SITES

Subject Categories:

• Psychology
• Command, Control and Communications Systems
• Undersea and Antisubmarine Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE