Accession Number:

ADA181048

Title:

Using the Pilot Model to Study the Effects of Technological Change

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

STANFORD UNIV CA SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION LAB

Report Date:

1986-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

15.0

Abstract:

PILOT is large-scale dynamic model of the U.S. economy which synthesizes structural representations of all sectors of the economy is general equilibrium context. PILOTs process-oriented representation of production synthesizes engineering-type data or judgments about sector-specific technological alternatives into a consistent overall picture of the long-run consequences of technological change and of government policy and foreign market conditions in the context of technological changes ongoing studies focus on the effects of a high tech vs. a low tech economy on aggregate and sectoral patterns of growth, and energy use over the next 25 years. PILOT implicitly embodies two central assumptions about economic behavior all markets are perfectly competitive and firms behave so as to maximize the net present value of profits. Furthermore,we have simplified the general equilibrium framework by assuming that there is no uncertainty all agents have perfect foresight. PILOT is thus a physical flow model which admits no role for financial instruments, including money. These characteristics have particular implications for the strength and weaknesses of the model as a tool for technology assessment and scenario analysis.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE