A Theory of Diagnostic Inference: Contract Progress Report.
Technical rept. no. 19, 15 Oct 83-14 Feb 87,
CHICAGO UNIV IL CENTER FOR DECISION RESEARCH
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This report summarizes a program of research on diagnostic inference for the period from October 15, 1983 to February 14, 1987. The central theme underlying the work is that complex judgments and choices result from simple psychological processes that interact with highly variable and complex environments. Thus, attempts have been made to identify such processes, to describe them by parsimonious mathematical models, and to test the implications of the models in experimental strategies. Four major projects are described. These involve models of judgments of probable cause, belief updating, judgment and choice under ambiguity, and a theory of preference reversals. Discussion of each of the four projects follows the same format statement of issues motivating the particular topic as well as principles underlying the approach adopted in the research, description of the model, summary of implications and major empirical results obtained to date. The report concludes by listing technical reports and publications which were produced during the contract period and which provide detailed information on all the projects.