Tropical Cyclone Ship Avoidance Program (TCSAP) for the Western North Pacific Ocean.
Final contractor rept. 31 Dec 85-31 Dec 87,
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORP MONTEREY CA
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The Tropical Cyclone Ship Avoidance Program TCSAP, which is designed to replace the Pacific Fleets tropical cyclone danger area avoidance instruction, is described. The Pacific Fleet danger area was tested on 1982 tropical cyclone forecasts, and summary results of these tests are given. The effect of a pending change in the Pacific Fleet allowance of 136 n mi to 120 n mi for error was simulated summary results are presented. A constant peripheral risk danger area formulation was devised and compared to the present danger area. This constant peripheral risk danger area, based on the probability of 30 kt winds, is recommended as an alternate to the Pacific Fleet danger area. Keywords Tropical cyclones, Strike probability, Danger area, Condition-setting aid, Decision aid.