Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.
Interim rept. no. 3. Oct 85-Sep 86,
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SILVER SPRING MD TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LAB
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A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short range period of 10, 20, 30, ..., 60 minutes. It uses the automated weather observing system AWOS elements as predictors and predictands. The model is founded on Markov assumptions and uses multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the Generalized Exponential Markov GEM model compares with persistence. Tests are performed on an independent data sample. Overall, GEM succeeds in bettering current short range weather forecasting techniques i.e., persistence over the six projection periods of 10, 20, 30, ..., 60 minutes. Author
- Statistics and Probability