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Survivability of the Hardened Mobile Launcher When Attacked by a Hypothetical Rapidly Retargetable ICBM System.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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This thesis evaluates the survivability of the hardened mobile launcher system HML against a hypothetical enemy ICBM system. The hypothetical system has two key capabilities it can obtain near real-time intelligence information regarding the HMLs location, and it can be retargeted in flight as necessary according to the intelligence information. Thus, the hypothetical ICBM threat systems can attack individual HMLs directly rather than rely on a barrage attack against HML bases. Monte Carlo simulation is used to approach the problem. The model is an MBASIC computer program, written and runs on an Apple Macintosh computer. The model simulates the flight of the attacking ICBMs there may be as few as one or as many as 14 warheads directed at each HML and the random dispersal tactics of a single HML. The model determines the locations of the detonations and the location of the HML at time of detonation. Based on these locations, probability of kill due to peak blast overpressure is calculated. A key parameter in the model is intelligence retargeting cycle time -- the time required to obtain intelligence and retarget accordingly. This time is varied from 1-30 minutes. The model also allows variations in HML speed and hardness and threat system CEP. A subroutine for examining the effects of neutron fratricide on the attacking warheads is included although the effects were found to be negligible. This thesis concludes that very small intelligenceretargeting cycle times are required for this to be an effective weapon system against the HML. Thus, with todays or near future technology, the HML can be considered a very survivable system.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE