Accession Number:

ADA171774

Title:

The Use of Exponential Smoothing to Produce Yearly Updates of Loss Rate Estimates in Marine Corps Manpower Models

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

• Hogan, Jr, Daniel L.

Report Date:

1986-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

105.0

Abstract:

The use of exponential smoothing to perform yearly updating of attrition rates is examined and has merit. It shows enormous flexibility in adjusting to changes in the environment affecting the attrition rates, and it displays almost as much accuracy as the method it is intended to replace while using thousands of times less data. A secondary purpose of this study is fulfilled in conforming that the current aggregate methods are outperformed by maximum likelihood estimation, transform cell James-Stein. Nonen of these four methods is dominant overall, but all are improvements over the estimation system now employed. Author

Descriptors:

• *ATTRITION
• *MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• CHARTS
• ESTIMATES
• FIGURE OF MERIT
• MANPOWER
• MARINE CORPS PERSONNEL
• OFFICER PERSONNEL
• TABLES(DATA)
• THESES

Subject Categories:

• Personnel Management and Labor Relations
• Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE