Structuring Expert Judgment in S/V (Survivability and Vulnerability) Analysis
KLEIN ASSOCIATES INC YELLOW SPRINGS OH
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It is essential that the Air Force be able to predict the Survivability and Vulnerability SV of structures exposed to various types of blast and shock waves. Direct testing is time-consuming, expensive, and often not feasible. Attempts to develop formal models have been limited because of the complexity of the problem. Therefore the predictions are typically based on expert judgments. However, expert judgments can be biased and unreliable unless carefully structured. This project examined the feasibility of using a Comparison-Based Prediction CBP method for structuring SV judgments. The CBP method is designed to improve the quality of predictions by anchoring them in existing data and by creating an audit trail documenting how the predictions were made. A total of thirty-one Subject-Matter Experts SMEs were interviewed in an experimental paradigm contrasting predictions made using the CBP method with predictions made without using CBP. The research design was modified several times to incorporate improvements in the way CBP was applied to this domain, as well as to improve the experimental paradigm.
- Structural Engineering and Building Technology