Logistic Microdata Model of First-Term Army Reenlistment
ARMY RESEARCH INST FOR THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ALEXANDRIA VA
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An objective of this study is to analyze the impact of economic incentives such as selective reenlistment bonuses SRBs and competitive military pay on the probability to reenlist. Mental category, race, number of dependents, and unemployment are also included in a multinomial logit model. Servicemen eligible to reenlist in 98 Military Occupational Specialties MOSs were grouped into 15 career management fields CMFs for estimating the logit equations. The results reveal that economic incentives in the form of SRBs and relative pay significantly increase the probability to reenlist in all CMFs. Also, the reenlistment probability is higher among blacks, servicemen with dependents, and individuals with higher mental abilities. The unexpected negative effects of unemployment, although puzzling at first glance, could be attributed to 1 the use of unemployment rate data that are too aggregative to measure local labor market conditions, 2 collinearity of unemployment with civilian wages, and 3 the fact that reenlistment-eligible servicemen are already employed and do not view unemployment as a threat.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations