Accession Number:

ADA167049

Title:

Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept. Oct 84-Sep 85,

Corporate Author:

FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION WASHINGTON DC PROGRAM ENGINEERING AND MAINTENANCE SERVICE

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1986-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

97.0

Abstract:

A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short period of 10, 20, 30, ... 60 minutes. It uses automated surface observation elements as predictors and predictands. The model is founded on Markov assumption and uses multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the Generalized Equivalent Markov GEM model is constructed and how it compares with other objective methods such as climatology and persistence. Tests are performed on an independent data sample. Overall, GEM succeeds in bettering persistence and does so uniformly over the 6 projection periods of 10,20,30,....60 minutes. Keywords Helicopters, Aircraft safety, Short-range forecasts Statistical forecasts Multivariate linear regression.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE