An Evaluation of CPRA (Cost Performance Report Analysis) Estimate at Completion Techniques Based Upon AFWAL (Air Force Wright Aeronautical Laboratories) Cost/Schedule Control System Criteria Data
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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This thesis examined techniques used to derive estimates of the cost at completion for various research and development programs. The six methods examined were the methods used in the Cost Performance Report Analysis CPRA computer program to calculate estimates at completion. The analysis is based on a linear regression between the cost at completion for each technique available. The techniques were ranked by coefficient of determination and a general linear test was performed to test for equality among the regression lines. The results of this investigation indicate that an estimate at completion based upon weighted cost and schedule indices minimizes the unexplained error as a percentage of total error and is thought to be the superior forecaster of costs at completion. The general linear test for equality among the regression lines generated by the different techniques did not indicate the existence of commonality between regression lines. This means that each technique tested provided a unique estimate at completion.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Statistics and Probability
- Test Facilities, Equipment and Methods