An Evaluation of Component Dependence in Cost-Risk Analysis.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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This thesis project developed a cost-risk assessment method that incorporated the effects of cost dependency between components in a system. The method uses program personnels subjective assessments of component dependency as inputs. A simulation model was developed and employed to test the method under various levels of component dependence strength and direction, estimation error, and system size. The analysis was accomplished by performing sensitivity analysis on the predictive capabilities of the cost-risk assessing method. Results indicate that the model has strong predictive capability when component size is small and when the direction of the component dependencies is mixed. It was also determined that the use of component dependency assessments produced more realistic total system cost variances than those produced under the assumption of component cost independence.
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