Evaluation of the Air Force Systems Command Production Rate Model and Alternate Formulations.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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The need to make decisions concerning production rate changes in todays cost conscious environment requires that accurate estimates be made of their impact on cost. The Analytic Sciences Corporation TASC developed a model for Air Force Systems Command AFSC for this purpose. This model, along with two alternative formulations of the production rate problem is the subject of this investigation. Based on this analysis it has been determined that the current AFSC model is capable of providing more accurate estimates than the standard unit learning curve model which it is derived from. The first alternative formulation, which includes an additional variable to account for changes in production rate, was shown to consistently provide more accurate estimates than the current model. Since it is based on the current formulation, it can easily be incorporated into the present AFSC model. It is recommended that Systems Command do so. The second formulation, which is based on the unit learning curve model with the exponent expressed as a function of production rate, also provides more accurate estimates than the current formulation though, not as consistently. There is evidence which suggests that this formulation is capable of providing more accurate estimates than the first alternative for certain types of programs. It is recommended that this be further investigated. Thesis
- Administration and Management
- Economics and Cost Analysis