Cost Uncertainty Assessment Methodology: New Initiatives
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC
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Given the current emphasis on improving all aspect of cost analysis and the primacy of cost uncertainty in the cost estimation process, it is time to assess the quality of the state-of-the-art and look toward improving techniques where needed. An argument supporting the primacy of cost uncertainty analysis and a critical assessment of existing techniques was given. In this paper, we examine some efforts to apply new results and insights, both mathematical and psychological, to the problems of cost uncertainty analysis. The paper will be treat some new ideas pertaining to probability elicitation encoding using interactive software and indirect assessment of the uncertainty associated with a CER.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Statistics and Probability