Stochastic Analysis of Drought Phenomena.
HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER DAVIS CA
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Droughts are caused by both hydrologic and socioeconomic components. This document concentrates on stochastic models of streamflow as the hydrologic component of drought. Stochastic models of drought are presented to the water resource engineer as an extension of the more commonly understood flood frequency analysis. The extension can be made becuase flood frequency analysis utilizes stochastic models of independent random variables whereas drought analysis utilizes stochastic models of independent random variables. There are many different stochastic models that have been implemented to describe dependent random variables. A comparison of these models indicate that simple ones, such as the autoregressive model, are adequate for the water resource engineers needs. Keywords Army Corps of Engineers Probability theory Monte Carlo Method Time series analysis Ergodic processes Linear regression analysis. Author
- Statistics and Probability