Probabilistic Evaluation of Individual Aircraft Tracking Techniques.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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A study was conducted in order to demonstrate a technique for comparing the outputs of various individual aircraft tracking IAT systems. There were two objectives 1 to determine the distribution of structural lives that could be expected based on a single IAT scenario, and 2 to evaluate the feasibility of replacing the current universal IAT safety factor with specific statistical calculations that consider the strengths and weaknesses of each IAT system. The ultimate goal of this thesis was to begin the transition of individual aircraft tracking from a deterministic approach to a stochastic one. A simulation was performed which included twelve aircraft, each flying five different load history variations at three gross weights. Initial structural damage was assumed based on a reset flaw size after nondestructive inspection. Structural lives were normally distributed with a mean of approximately 4700 flight hours. The cracks present at the one-half lifetime depot inspection were lognormally distributed. Using these distributions, the probabilities of structural failure were calculated for several inspection intervals. Repeating this process for other IAT scenarios would allow a direct comparison of various IAT systems. Eventually, such a process could lead to individual system safety factors, rather that the current universal safety factor. Thesis.
- Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems