Forecasting Device Effectiveness. Volume 3. Analytic Assessment of Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique
Final rept. Aug 1983-Dec 1984
AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH WASHINGTON DC
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Several analytic procedures were conducted to address various aspects of the scalar properties of the Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique DEFT. These procedures included Monte Carlo simulations to assess the interpretation of DEFT output, sensitivity of DEFT parameters, comparison of outputs, stability, and interrater agreement. Results indicated that it would be necessary to incorporate assumptions regarding expected distributions of input variables in order to meaningfully interpret DEFT output. Also, the Monte Carlo analyses demonstrated the sensitivity of DEFT output scores to variations in inputs, and assessed the effects of various assumptions regarding measurement error on output scores. The interrater agreement issue was addressed by having several raters apply DEFT to the three actual training devices. Results indicated a high degree of consistency among raters for all devices for all levels of DEFT. Keywords Transfer of training Sensitivity analysis Reliability.
- Numerical Mathematics