Attrition and Retention in the Army Reserve and Army National Guard: An Empirical Analysis,
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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This paper reports on retention and attrition research on pay increases subsequently undertaken from FY 73 to FY 78. The research reported here draws on two disparate analyses. The first is an evaluation of the 1978 Selected Reserve Reenlistment Bonus Test undertaken in response to a 1977 congressional authorization. This test focuses on the influence of pay and other factors on the Reserve reenlistment decision. The second analyses attrition behavior of nonprior service reservists who separate from the Reserves prior to completition of their enlisted term. The Gates Commission failed to anticipate the rise in first term attrition during the AVF for both Active and Reserves. This increase in attrition raised accession requirments. Recognition of this effect would probably have resulted in a recommendation to increase levels of pay beyond the original recommended increases and presumably could have forestalled some of the decline. Section I focuses on the reserve reenlistment decision while Section II centers on the attrition decision. Each is divided into several subsections describing the data base, the theoretical framework for the analysis, and the empirical results. Section III presents concluding remarks.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations