An Improved Method of Risk Analysis for the Naval Ship Design Process. Course XIIIA.
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE DEPT OF OCEAN ENGINEERING
Pagination or Media Count:
A new method for quantifying risk in the naval ship design process by means of probability distributions is presented. Risk is equated with uncertainty about the characteristics of the design. The causes of uncertainty in a ship synthesis model are discussed and analytical methods for combining probability distributions based on work in the cost analysis field are presented. Additionally, recommendations are made on how to implement this methodology in the Navys ASSET ship synthesis model and an example is given of how the results from a tradeoff study using these methods would be presented to a decision maker. The methodology will give a clearer picture of the type and sources of risk to a decision maker and has applications in several phases of ship design. Finally, recommendations for further research and implementation are given. Thesis.
- Marine Engineering