A Methodology for Analyzing Arms Control Proposals
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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The purpose of this thesis is to develop a method for analyzing arms control proposals. It follows a modified systems analysis paradigm, centering about the use of the BRIK goal-programming nuclear exchange model. The objectives of deterrence and arms control are discussed, and it is shown that major goals are increasing stability and maximizing second-strike capability. Two arms control proposals, one based on the Reagan administrations START plan, and the other proposed by retired Air Force General Glenn Kent are evaluated over a ten-year period using the BRIK model. Forces were built and measures of merit generated for each proposal using three targeting strategies. The procedure for using the BRIK model followed a three-step process. First, new systems were added to the weapons base. Next, the BRIK model was used to achieve specified damage expectancy goals on the Soviet target base. These steps generated all data required to calculate the various measures of merit. To complete the analysis, the two alternatives were rated under the measures of merit. It was determined that, given the data and assumptions of this study, a decision maker should narrowly favor the START proposal.
- Government and Political Science
- Nuclear Warfare