Accession Number:

ADA155761

Title:

Evaluation of Nuclear Detonation Location Capability under High Attack Scenario.

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1985-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

129.0

Abstract:

Analysis was conducted to see how the location accuracy of a nuclear detonation NUDET and probability of damage Pd calculations were affected by high rates of attack NUDET locations were generated by random variates from horizontal cumulative distributions, a function of the number of satellitessensors observing the NUDET. Location was calculated for target silos with cratering and impulse as the damage mechanisms. The estimated Pd was compared to the actual Pd. System performance in correctly predicting a target as destroyed was poor. A targets Pd exceeding 50 was the criteria for a target being destroyed. Decreasing the location error by factor of 12 greatly improved the systems ability 53 to determine a target as destroyed. However, 18 of the targets were incorrectly considered destroyed. This problem was eliminated using 90 threshold criteria, yet system performance was highly degraded. These implications have to be weighed and understood when such systems are used in the decision making process. Keywords include Nuclear weapons Space systems Surveillance.

Subject Categories:

  • Nuclear Weapons

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE