Accession Number:

ADA155420

Title:

Forecasting the Wages of Young Men: The Effects of Cohort Size.

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept.,

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1985-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

66.0

Abstract:

In this study, the authors develop forecasts of the civilian wage structure over the next two decades for a variety of different scenarios. They focus on how the wage structure will change as the demographic trend reverses itself, i.e., as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts enter the labor market in the 1980s and 1990s. Section II of the report describes the survey data used to create a working file for the analysis. Based on this file, the authors paint a broad overview of how cohort size and relative wages have changed over the 1967-1980 period. Section III discusses the wage model used and highlights the main empirical results. The assumptions and approach used to forecast wages are detailed in Section IV. Section V extends the wage model to investigate two alternative explanations for the observed decline in youth wages. The last section concludes with a summary of the main findings and their implications for military compensation policy. Additional keywords Salaries Income and Military personnel.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE