Medium Range Atmospheric Forecast System: Evaluation Report.
Final rept. Aug 83-Feb 85,
SYSTEMS AND APPLIED SCIENCES CORP MONTEREY CA
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The Navy has little experience in evaluating the usefulness of numerical environmental predictions prepared for periods greater than 3 days. Recognizing this, the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility NEPRF embarked in 1983 in a project to develop a procedure which could establish the relevant accuracy and operational utility of a medium-range 5 to 10 day atmospheric forecast system. The results of a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy and utility--with respect to operational Navy applications--of medium range 5-7 day atmospheric forecast system are presented. Several nonstandard, but operationally relevant, objective measures of forecast model skill are employed, along with more traditional measures. Keywords Numerical weather prediction, Medium range forecast, and Forecast verification.