Accession Number:

ADA151943

Title:

Analysis of the Causes of Military Coups d'Etat in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960-1982.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.,

Corporate Author:

ORKAND CORP SILVER SPRING MD

Personal Author(s):

• Johnson,T. H.
• McGowan,P. J.

Report Date:

1983-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

381.0

Abstract:

This study provides the following key results concerning the causes of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa 1An Integrated Model of the causes of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa is developed which is able to delineate the major causes of coups across thirty-five countries, 1960-1982. 2The Integrated Model suggests those factors which are most important in characterizing the potential of countries to experience military coups. These factors include domestic and international economic, political, social and military measures. 3Based on this Integrated Model, forecasts are made of the propensity of Sub-Saharan countries to experience coups. These forecasts accurately classify all but three of thirty-five countries as likely or unlikely to experience coups between 1960 and 1982. This forecasting methodology is used to estimate probabilities of coups in the next three years.

Descriptors:

• *SUBSAHARAN AFRICA
• *PROBABILITY
• *FORECASTING
• *POLITICAL REVOLUTION
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• METHODOLOGY
• STABILITY
• MILITARY PERSONNEL
• QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
• POLITICAL SCIENCE
• ECONOMICS
• GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN)
• MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN)
• MODELS
• HISTORY
• CIVILIAN PERSONNEL
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• POLITICAL PARTIES
• SUBVERSION
• MILITARY GOVERNMENT
• INSURGENCY

Subject Categories:

• Humanities and History

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE