Accession Number:

ADA151551

Title:

An Application of the Rayleigh Distribution to Contract Cost Data

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

• Abernethy, Thomas S.

Report Date:

1984-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

79.0

Abstract:

Accurate cost models are essential to the proper monitoring of contract cost data. The greater the accuracy of the model, the earlier contract cost overruns can be recognized and their causes ascertained. The availability of a variety of cost models allows flexibility in choosing the correct model for the particular circumstances and increases the chances of being able to select a model that can provide reliable forecasts about future costs. This thesis investigates the possibility of adapting the Rayleigh distribution to cost modelling and develops an APL algorithm which summarizes the results of the application of the Rayleigh model to historical contract cost data. The Rayleigh model was found to be applicable to cost modelling and exhibited some predictive capability in the 21 Navy contracts examined.

Descriptors:

• *CONTRACTS
• *COST MODELS
• DATA PROCESSING
• MONITORING
• WEAPON SYSTEMS
• PARAMETERS
• FORECASTING
• THESES
• RELIABILITY
• NAVAL PROCUREMENT
• COST OVERRUNS

Subject Categories:

• Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE