A Replication and Extension of the Inducement of the Availability Heuristic
RICE UNIV HOUSTON TX DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY
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The availability of an event in an observers memory is postulated to be one of the bases for estimates of its frequency of past occurrence or the probability of future occurrence. In a previous study, enhancing every occurrence of an event produced an overestimation of frequency and probability estimations and predictive choices. However, the general finding of overestimation held only for events at the low 3225 and high 30225 ends of the test range in the middle range 12225 judgments were fairly accurate. The present study sought to replicate the availability bias induced in the previous study and to explore the underlying cognitive processes by manipulating the conditions used to induce the bias. Originator-supplied keywords include Case studies Decision making Statistical analysis Emergencies Crisis management Ambulances Frequency, Police Events and Occurrences.
- Statistics and Probability