Accession Number:

ADA149539

Title:

Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept. Sep 83-Oct 84,

Corporate Author:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SILVER SPRING MD

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1984-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

23.0

Abstract:

A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short period between 1 to 60 minutes. It uses automated surface observation elements as predictors and predictands. The same equations project probabilistic predictions iteratively minute-by-minute. The model is founded on a Markov assumption and utilizes multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the model is constructed and how it compares with other objective methods such as climatology and persistence. Tests are performed on a new nonlinear approach.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE