Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.
Interim rept. Sep 83-Oct 84,
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SILVER SPRING MD
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A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short period between 1 to 60 minutes. It uses automated surface observation elements as predictors and predictands. The same equations project probabilistic predictions iteratively minute-by-minute. The model is founded on a Markov assumption and utilizes multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the model is constructed and how it compares with other objective methods such as climatology and persistence. Tests are performed on a new nonlinear approach.