Politics of Succession in Taiwan.
DEPARTMENT OF STATE WASHINGTON DC OFFICE OF EXTERNAL RESEARCH
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This study considers the history of Chiang Ching-Kuo CCK and his one man-rule regime and examines the implications for the U.S. If CCK dies in office in the next 24 months, the government can expect a smooth transition. There will be a collective leadership, represented by the elements similar to those now in power, but with Taiwanese as the nominal President and some modest increase in Taiwanese influence. Major changes in government policies seem unlikely in the short term, but the situation may become more fluid as time goes by. The post-CCK regime will still be a Mainleader dominated Kuomintang government, with those in key position of the military and security apparatus welding considerable power, while a coalition of young turks and coopted Taiwanese are likely to dominate the non-military and non-security areas. In light of the prevailing pattern of elite circulation and promotion in Taiwan, the politicians who rise to policy-making positions in the future are those who are already holding some positions in the future are those who are already holding some positions of responsibility in major institutions. Chiang Hsiao-wu, CCKs son, is likely to exert considerable political influence as the backstage czar of the security apparatus. The post-CCK regime will be unable to continue current policies indefinitely, and has to adjust to the changing international environment and increasing demands by Taiwanese for a greater political role.
- Government and Political Science