A Model of Mission Accomplishment in Simulated Battle
ARMY RESEARCH INST FOR THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ALEXANDRIA VA
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This research sought to formulate a composite measure of mission accomplishment that could be used to assess simulated combat performance of battalion command groups, training command and control procedures, in a computer-driven battle simulation. Mission accomplishment was defined in terms of six measurable components or objectives of a covering forcedelay mission. Four retired Army officers served as judges for all experiments. Experiment I demonstrated that two of the objectives could be meaningfully combined into a single measure that was used in previous research as an index of relative losses by opposing forces. Multiple regression was used in Experiment II to describe how the judges assigned mission accomplishment scores to 216 hypothetical battle outcomes including measures of each mission objective. Experiment III compared judges assessments of 10 actual battle outcomes to the mission accomplishment scores predicted by the regression models derived in Experiment II. Inter-rater agreement was high in the assessments of actual battle outcomes, and individual predictor models accounted for more than 94 of the variance in ratings of these data for three of four judges. A composite model of mission accomplishment accounted for 93 of the variance in the average assessments of all four judges. Results indicate that it may be feasible to replace the expert judges with the composite model of mission accomplishment. Originator supplied keywords include Performance prediction, Performance evaluation, Policy capturing, and Decision making.
- Statistics and Probability
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics