Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
VIRGINIA UNIV CHARLOTTESVILLE DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Climate prediction models based on multivariate analyses of cyclone frequencies are constructed from historical data 1885-1960 and evaluated for forecast skill on independent data 1960-1983. Cyclone frequencies are predicted for six-month duration seasons at 87 locations over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic from 27.5 deg to 55 deg. Three types of principal components models are constructed and tested. Model I uses unrotated principal component axes Model II uses rigid rotation of the component axes and, Model III uses oblique rotations of the component axes. Forecast skill averages 75 correct for 2 category measure of forecasts.
- Statistics and Probability