Tropical Cyclone Sea-State Probability Model Development and Application.
Final technical rept.,
NAVAL ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION RESEARCH FACILITY MONTEREY CA
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Conditions of sea state around severe storms, especially tropical cyclones, are of major concern to ships. An encounter with a tropical cyclone has the potential for causing structural damage and perhaps even personnel casualties, thus accurate assessment of significant and possibly hazardous sea-state events is highly important. Two models that predict sea state based on operationally available input are examined and compared in this report. While it is concluded that both models provide reasonable forecasts of sea height, a preference for one model over the other is shown. This preferred model is coupled with elements of tropical cyclone wind and strike probability models to create sea state probabilities. These sea state probabilities, when tested on independent data, are found to be in good agreement with observational data. The preferred model developed in the first section of the report then is applied in subsequent sections to form a tropical cyclone threat anlaysis and display aid called TCASS Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System. The TCASS is designed primarily for shipboard applications and may be used by environmentalists as a briefing aid, for analysis of tropical cyclone threat, and as a tool for formulating a recommended course of action.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography