An Investigation of Optimal Aimpoints for Multiple Nuclear Weapons against Installations in a Target Complex
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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Strategic nuclear targeting studies generally include more target installations than there are weapons. Hence, a weapon is not assigned to an installation, but rather, to a Desired Ground Zero DGZ. The objective of this study was to investigate optimal DGZs for multiple nuclear weapons against installations in a target complex. To accomplish this, it was necessary to develop the target Complex Expected Damage Function CEDF maximization algorithm. The algorithm locates optimal DGZs by maximizing the CEDF the CEDF is a nonlinear function of 2m variables, the X sub i, Y sub i DGZ coordinates for each of the m weapons. The algorithm uses two CEDF models and two optimization techniques. These models use DIA Physical Vulnerability System probability of damage models. The CEP-Included model includes each weapons CEP the simpler CEP-Excluded model assumes each weapons CEP equals 0. An analytical expression for the gradient of the CEP-Excluded model was calculated the algorithm maximizes this CEDF using a conjugate gradient with restarts search technique. The algorithm maximizes the CEP-Included CEDF using a direct search technique, Powells method of conjugate directions. This investigation characterized three factors that affect the optimal DGZ locations for multiple nuclear weapons in a target complex. The first factor was gradient symmetry this symmetry resulted from either a geographically symmetric target complex or collocated weapons. The second factor was weapon CEP. Maximization of the two CEDF models produced slightly different optimal DGZs this difference depended on a weapons CEP and the CEDF model.
- Statistics and Probability
- Computer Programming and Software