Accession Number:

ADA137291

Title:

Forecasting U.S. Army Major Command Readiness Based on Enlisted Personnel Strength.

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1983-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

98.0

Abstract:

A model using linear programming optimization and Markov Chain forecasting techniques is presented to forecast future Major Command MACOM readiness based on the personnel criteria of Army Regulation AR 220-1. The model is composed of four modules. First, the Recruitment Module forecasts accessions based on total numbers recruited and historical attrition rates. Second, the Distribution Module optimally assigns all new accessions and permanent change of station moves to the MACOMs. Next, the Forecasting Module ages the MACOMs using the theory of Markov Chains. Finally, the Readiness Indicator Module computes and assigns a readiness rating to the MACOMs based on the personnel criteria specified in AR 220-1. The results obtained from this methodology can aid DCSPERS, MILPERCEN, and other decision makers in the formulation of future manpower policies concerning recruitment, promotion, expiration term of service ETS and permanent change of station PCS.

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management
  • Personnel Management and Labor Relations
  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE