Accession Number:

ADA131475

Title:

Weighing Evidence: The Design and Comparison of Probability Thought Experiments.

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.,

Corporate Author:

STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s):

• Shafer,Glenn
• Tversky,Amos

Report Date:

1983-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

79.0

Abstract:

The assessment of probability on the basis of evidence is viewed as a thought experiment that yields an expression of degree of belief. Theories of subjective probability are viewed as tools or languages for analyzing evidence and expressing degree of belief. This article focuses on two probability languages the classical Bayesian language and the language of belief functions. We describe and compare the semantics i.e., the meaning of the scale and the syntax i.e., the formal calculus of these languages. We also analyze the designs of thought experiments afforded by the two languages and discuss their implications. Author

Descriptors:

• *Probability
• *Judgement(Psychology)
• *Decision making
• Problem solving
• Perception(Psychology)
• Statistical analysis
• Performance(Human)
• Information processing
• Cognition
• Semantics
• Syntax
• Mathematical models
• Mathematical prediction
• Psychology

Subject Categories:

• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE