The World Grain Economy and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Implications for Policy
CHICAGO UNIV IL
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This report is the third and final phase of a research effort to quantify expert perceptions of global climate change to the year 2000 and to assess the potential effects of those perceived changes on the yield, production, and prices of major world food crops. Task I defined and estimated the likelihood of changes of climate during the last quarter of the 20th century and constructed climate scenarios for the year 2000. Task II estimated the effects of possible climate changes upon the yields of selected crops in specific countries and developed a methodology for combining crop responses and climate probabilities into climate-crop scenarios for the year 2000. Task III evaluated the domestic and international policy implications of the climate-crop scenarios. This report gives the economic analysis and conclusions for Task III and is based directly upon the results of Tasks I and II.
- Agricultural Economics