Accession Number:

ADA128571

Title:

The Soviet Union's Hard-Currency Balance of Payments and Creditworthiness in 1985.

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept.,

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1983-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

10.0

Abstract:

This study of Soviet hard-currency balance-of-payments structure and creditworthiness in 1985 is intended to be not a prediction but rather a set of projections of the Soviet Unions financial position in 1985 based on several scenarios plausible assumptions. The model highlights the vulnerability of the Soviet hard-currency balance-of-payments to liquidity squeeze by examining its near-term financial policy variables. The authors first estimate an initial scenaric for the 1985 hard-currency balance-of-payments, which comes in two variants accoridng to the assumed rate of Soviet GNP growth during the current Five-Year Plan, 1981 through 1985. Next, a list of adverse events of internal and external origin and the effects of each individually on Noncompressible Import Capacity is examined. Finally, the authors examine a series of worst cases, which combine several of the more serious adverse events at once.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE