A Framework for Analyzing and Predicting Insurgency
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This study develops a method to analyze and predict rural insurgencies in the third world. First it derives a causal model and a process model of insurgency from social science theories and empirical studies. The models help to identify and organize twenty-eight analytical factors describing the society, physical environment, government, and the insurgents. The factors calculate the government-insurgent balance in organization, legitimacy, and coercion. An analyst using the methodology evaluates each factor that is relevant to the current phase of the insurgency and records his responses on a factor scale. The scales are isomorphic, extending from conditions of government to insurgent advantage, and are arranged in parallel on a worksheet. Connecting the selected points produces a graph that suggests the status of the insurgency. The analyst may overlay different worksheets to determine change over time or to compare insurgent situations.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics