Using Solar Radio Burst Integrated Fluxes to Predict Energetic Proton Flux Increases.
AIR FORCE GEOPHYSICS LAB HANSCOM AFB MA
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Time-integrated solar ratio fluxes and their association with satellite observed solar energetic proton flux increases have been studied. The time-integration was only of the U-portion of the radio burst flux increase. The best correlations between the integrated radio fluxes and the proton peak fluxes were realized when the radio fluxes were multiplied by the factor exp -3B, where B is the angular distance, in radians, between the site of the flare and the solar footpoint of the magnetic field connection between the sun and the earth. The solar footpoint positions were determined from the solar wind speed. Two-variate linear regressions were computed using the time-integrated radio fluxes at five discrete radio frequencies in the 606 to 8800 MHz frequency interval and peak proton fluxes at 10 MeV and 30 MeV. The higher frequencies of 2695, 4995 and 8800 MHz all correlated better with the 10 -MeV protons than the lower frequencies. The 30-MeV protons were even better correlated with the higher frequencies, but correlation with the lower frequencies were poorer. The Total Energy Density, E sub T, of the radio burst, an integration across the frequency interval of the time-integrated radio fluxes at each frequency, was found to be better correlated with the proton fluxes than any of the individual frequencies.