Modeling Sea Ice Trajectories for Oil Spill Tracking.
Final rept. 1 Aug 80-31 Mar 81,
FLOW RESEARCH CO KENT WA
Pagination or Media Count:
A free-drift ice model and a complete sea ice dynamics model are presented and used for simulating trajectories of Arctic sea ice. The development of these models is part of a U.S. Coast Guard study to provide methods for predicting the movement of oil spills in Arctic and sub-Arctic coastal waters. Performance of both models is compared with sea ice motions observed during the AIDJEX main field experiment in the Beaufort Sea from Aqril 1975 to February 1976. The average error in the free-drive model during the summer is 0.010 ms with a standard deviation of 0.030 ms while the more complete model gives an error of 0.005 ms with a standard deviation of 0.020 ms. The complete ice dynamics model is almost as accurate during the winter 0.005 ms mean error, 0.036 ms standard deviation but the free-drift model performance degrades substantially 0.030 ms mean error and 0.107 ms standard deviation. Therefore, both models are useful tools for simulating and predicting summertime ice motions on the Beaufort Sea but only the complete ice dynamics model can accurately describe wintertime ice behavior.
- Snow, Ice and Permafrost
- Statistics and Probability