Civilian Manpower Planning Model for Scientific and Engineering Personnel in the Navy R&D Centers
Rept. for Jan-Aug 1981
NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER SAN DIEGO CA
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To assess the effect of high-grade limitations on the attrition rate, it is necessary to measure the quantitative response of attrition to promotion opportunity. Also, a civilian manpower planning model is needed to assess the impacts of alternative manpower policies on the scientific and engineering SE personnel structure and flows in Navy RD centers. The purpose of this effort was to develop a manpower planning model to project the effect of high-grade limitations on Navy RD centers. The number of SE vacancies in the Navy RD centers is affected by a variety of personnel flows, including the number of accessions, voluntary quits, promotions, and retirements. Changes in Navy personnel policies, among other factors, affect personnel flows that, in turn, affect the age and grade structures of SE professionals. Therefore, policy variables were included in developing the manpower planning model. The techniques used in this effort include probability and ratio estimation and regression analysis. A civilian manpower planning model was developed to forecast professional personnel flows and levels in the Navy RD centers. The model provides alternative projections by age and grade based on various policy scenarios. The civilian manpower planning model developed can be used to assist the offices of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy and the Chief of Naval Material in evaluating the effect of high-grade ceilings on the capability of Navy RD centers.
- Administration and Management
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations