Accession Number:

ADA125218

Title:

Modeling Human Decision Processes in Command and Control

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept. no. 1, Sep 81-Sep 82

Corporate Author:

ALPHATECH INC BURLINGTON MA

Report Date:

1983-02-14

Pagination or Media Count:

72.0

Abstract:

The primary goal of this ongoing project is to model human behavior in specific situations and, in particular, to model high-level decisionmaking for antisubmarine warfare commanders. To abet this modeling effort the SHOR paradigm is presented as a structure for analyzing human cognitive decisionmaking. SHOR describes decisionmaking as a cascading of four activities, they are information processing, hypothesis generation and evaluation, option generation and evaluation, and decision execution. The commanders decisionmaking process is cast into the SHOR framework. A Bayesian optimal mathematical model of the decisionmakers hypothesis evaluation procedure is developed. The inputs to the model are the hypotheses and sensor data, and its outputs are the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses being true and their respective states of nature. It is assumed that these outputs are sufficient for the commander to perform the option generation and evaluation activities. A brief example of how the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses evolve in the light of new data and implications of the model are presented. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology
  • Undersea and Antisubmarine Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE