Aid Loss Probability System for Enlisted (AID-E). Volume 1. Executive Summary,
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO WASHINGTON DC TEMPO CENTER FOR ADVANCED STUDIES
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The Department of the Army has many manpower projection models, each of which serves different purposes for different managers. Since the objectives of these managers are interrelated, it would be useful to the Army if the loss rates used in these models were not only reliable but also consistent, so that the projections of one model could easily be compared with the projections of others. In response to this need, GE-TEMPO has devised a system capable of generating several sets of loss rates from one basic set of loss rates. The generated rates can be used in both presently existing and future generations of manpower projection models with consistency and reliability. This system is called the AID Loss Probability System for Enlisted. The core of the system is a statistical technique which groups the actual enlisted population into several subpopulations according to personal characteristics most predictive of losses of individuals in each subpopulation. A loss probability is developed for each individual who belongs to a specific subpopulation and any desired loss format e.g., grade by years of service can be generated by summing over the appropriate individual characteristics. Since each individuals personal characteristics and his loss probability have a one-to-one correspondence, no matter how individuals are grouped for the purpose of generating loss rates e.g., by grade, MOS, or any other relevant characteristic each individuals characteristics and his loss probability are preserved. The loss probability of the group, however defined, is always the sum of the loss probabilities of actual individuals.
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